The New Hybrid American Regime

On this Fourth of July it is evident that we are experiencing regime change in the US.

As Americans observe this Independence Day with fireworks, a barbecue, a ballgame and, for many, a long day’s work at a low-paying job, it is a good time to both look back on the first six months of the second Trump administration as well as to take stock of where we are and where we might be heading. One thing is apparent: American democracy is not just in an acute crisis, but in a very meaningful way is over.

More specifically, the American democracy of the post-Civil Rights Era is not coming back. There may be a future American democracy 2.0, but what that will look like is not yet clear. A corresponding reality is that while the Constitution is still an important text, it is no longer guiding the US government or acting as a check on tyranny as the founders had hoped.

It is also true that while Trump himself is, by temperament and political inclination a fascist, and would like to remake the US in that direction, his regime has struggled to consolidate that fascism. In other words, Trump may be a fascist, but it is an overstatement, at least for now, to describe the US as a fascist country.

Currently, the American regime can best be understood as a hybrid with two, and possibly three, distinct elements. The first element is the emergent but, for now not yet consolidated, MAGA fascist regime. We see this in the ongoing arrests and deportations of immigrants, threats, some of which are followed up on, to use executive power to harass regime opponents, military response to overwhelmingly peaceful protests, arrests or handcuffing of at least two prominent elected officials unfriendly to the regime, intimidation of universities and civil society organizations, efforts to roll back the democratic advances of the last fifty years and the like.

The second element is the remnants of the old regime. The MAGA fascist ascendancy has at times been hampered by judges who rule against them, state and local elected officials able to use their power to partially resist the regime, enduring existence of a diverse and critical media, a civil society that while facing harassment is still largely free and, at least for now, competitive elections still occurring. The old regime is also still manifested in the millions of Americans who are able to go about their daily lives as they have for most of the past few decades. These people may be upset about, but not obsessed by, the fascist threat and have yet to experience any direct impact.

There is also a third element to this hybrid regime that is not yet as pronounced as the first two but could become very important. There is a new resistance emerging, one that is different from the what we saw during Trump’s first term and may be more militant and radical. This is a natural response to events, particularly from younger Americans unburdened by sepia-toned memories of pre-Trump America.

This newer and generally younger more radical resistance does not have to be persuaded that the Constitution is not a sacred text, the Supreme Court is not a collection of semi-divine wizards or that capitalism does not work because that has been their lived experience for much of their adult lives. This movement takes many different forms but is apparent in the radicalization of the Free Gaza movement, the landslide primary victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York and the protests this year that despite the legacy punditry suggesting otherwise, have been bigger than in 2017.

To some extent the challenge facing the Democratic Party now lies in the tension between the remnants of the old regime and the emergence of a newer more radical politics of the left.

One way to think of this is if you asked a very good AI program to create a liberal Democratic politician who would most effectively alienate more radical and younger voters, it could not come up with anything better than Chuck Schumer. Schumer is currently the most powerful Democrat in Washington but is captive of a worldview that is no longer relevant. Nonetheless, the appeal for older and more affluent Democrats of believing that we can get back to normal, that this is all an aberration and that the fundamentals of American democracy and institution are sound, is obvious, but that view is absurd, particularly to the newer more radical opposition.

Chuck Schumer is the face of the discredited Democratic leadership. Photo: cc/US Army Marching Band.

It is likely that this hybrid will persist for a few years. The MAGA fascist movement is not going away anytime soon and has a reliable and committed base of something like one-third of the population as well as complete control of the Republican Party. The pre-MAGA American regime is fading away, but that is happening slowly. There are still strong enough institutions and enough affluence for many Americans to continue to believe that we are one court ruling, one election, one big scandal away from getting back to the before times. That belief is the product of wishful and lazy thinking, but it is nonetheless powerful.

The future of American politics may ultimately be defined by the struggle between the MAGA fascist movement and the newer resistance. It is very difficult to know when that will occur or who will win that struggle, but the appetite in anti-Trump circles for a Chuck Schumer-Hakeem Jeffries led effort to turn the clock backwards shrinks with every passing day.

Some may bemoan this as a choice between two radical and illiberal forces, but that doesn’t have to be the case. The emergent newer left is still largely unformed. There is a strong emphasis on racial, economic and environmental justice, ideas that are electorally and morally appealing, but beyond that there is nothing too firm. The challenge for all of us individually and collectively is to build on those ideas and create a big picture vision for what American democracy 2.0 can look like. The stakes could not be higher.

Happy Fourth of July!