The 2026 Midterms In Perspective
It is important for the Democrats to win back the House in 2026. However, we should be aware of the limits of what that would accomplish.
I know this is unusual for me, but I want to take a moment to imagine a realistic but optimistic scenario for 2026. Let’s imagine that the Trump-Musk regime becomes less popular in the coming six to eighteen months and that the 2026 midterms are able to be conducted in a generally free, fair and democratic manner.
In this scenario, the Democrats could win back control of the House of Representatives and end up with 223 seats to 212 for the Republicans. While the Senate remains out of reach, to keep the scenario upbeat, let's say the Republican majority in the Senate is reduced to 51-49. A lot of things would have to break the right way for all of this to happen, but it is not prima facie unrealistic.
This is something of a best-case scenario that represents a hope among many Democrats that the Trump excesses can and will be curbed. However, the question this raises is how precisely a Democratic majority in the House would stop the Trump-Musk putsch. The most immediate answer is that a Democratic House would be able to prevent the administration from passing any significant legislation. While that is, on balance, a very good thing, its significance should not be overstated.
Stopping Trump from being able to pass legislation would be a much more valuable accomplishment if Trump were relying upon, or in any meaningful way employing, legislation as an important tactic in his effort to destroy American democracy. Thus far, Trump and Musk have relied on executive orders, and simply doing what they want with nothing restraining them, to execute their plan. It is possible that Trump will pass a major tax bill to further ensure that wealth is shifted upward, but that legislation, if it occurs, will happen soon, not in the third or fourth year of his presidency.
It is also very relevant that the Senate map will be very difficult for the Democrats in 2026. A President whose party does not control the House, generally cannot legislate but a President whose party does not control the Senate cannot govern. If the Democrats were to win back control of the Senate, they would be able to block Trump’s appointments-including to the federal bench, but the Republicans are extremely likely to retain control of the upper chamber at the midterms.
The House of Representatives has other powers in addition to legislating, not least because they can play an important oversight role. To say this administration is in desperate need of oversight is a pretty dramatic understatement, but there will be limits in that area as well. The first Trump administration was reluctant to turn over records and otherwise respond to demands from House Democrats once they became the majority in that chamber following the 2018 midterms. This time, the Trump administration will not just be reluctant when faced with these demands, but will be even more hostile than in the past.
If Jamie Raskin (D-MD) currently the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, or Greg Meeks (D-NY), who has a similar position on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, become chair of their respective committees in 2027 and launch investigations into, for example, the Trump administration’s harassment of FBI agents who were involved in the cases against January 6th rioters, or the dismantling of USAID, their demands for records, appearances by Trump officials and the like will be ignored. To think, even for a moment, that Elon Musk, to take the most egregious example, would testify before the House if subpoenaed, is absurd.
This is not to say that a Democratic majority should eschew investigating the Trump administration. On the contrary, it is imperative that if the Democrats win back the House they relentlessly investigate, block and use every tool they have to stop the Trump-Musk putsch and to inform the American people of what is occurring. However, there is little reason to think that this alone will stop the putsch.
It has been less than a month since the Trump-Musk regime took power. During that time the attacks on democracy, brazen disregard for the Constitution and efforts to weaken the US are too numerous to recount, but they include reinforcing white supremacy and Christian nationalism through attacks on DEI, pardoning people who sought to violently overthrow a free and fair election, dismantling USAID, stealing private data from millions of Americans, seeking to end birthright citizenship and turning much of the government over to a gaggle of crypto-goniff-nebbishes led by a ketamine fueled racist oligarch-all in less than a month.
Given all that, it is very difficult to imagine what the 22-and-a-half months between now and when that hypothetical Democratic majority would be running the House of Representatives will look like, but it is all but certain that things will get much worse during this period. That means that the need for some kind of oversight, likely legal proceedings and relentless efforts to expose the administrations doings would be even more important, but also would confront much more resistance, not just from the administration, but possibly from violent elements within society that they have already begun to empower.
A Democratic majority in the House for the final two years of this administration is better than the alternative, but it is a small step. The search for deus ex machinas to save American democracy, has clouded resistance strategies for almost a decade now. The 2026 midterms are in danger becoming the latest iteration of that dynamic. The difficulty here is that while flipping in the House in 2026 guarantees nothing, failing to do that would further accelerate the consolidation of the Trump-Musk regime and of the democratic rollback that is already in high gear.