How the Trump Regime Is Preparing to Make Elections Less Free and Fair
There are many ways to make elections less free, fair and democratic. The Trump regime is already pursuing some of those methods
Years ago during a meeting with an American diplomat in a country that was holding in elections in a few months, I raised my concerns that the election would not be conducted freely and fairly, citing evidence based on things that I had seen and people I had spoken to in recent weeks there. The diplomat dismissed my concern, asking how I could know an election is unfair when it hadn't even occurred yet. I responded, perhaps, but not necessarily, too flippantly, that if you can't figure out in advance that an election is going to be stolen you shouldn't be in this business.
Needless to say, a few months later the election was held and fell far short of democratic standards.
The reason I raise this is to make the rather obvious point that there are many ways to steal an election. In the United States this is of particular concern because despite the noise from the Trump MAGA cult since 2020 suggesting that election was stolen, the real threat to free, fair and democratic elections in this country comes from the Republican Party and indeed the Trump regime itself.
This is an even graver reality because since returning to office, the Trump regime has in no way been acting like a government that will leave office simply because they lose an election, or as a government that will allow those elections to occur in a free fair and democratic manner.
Some have argued that Trump will find a reason to cancel elections in 2026 or 2028. I do not believe that will happen, not because the regime would have any moral or ethical scruples about doing something like that, but because canceling elections is unnecessary. In other words, there are many ways the Trump regime can steal these coming elections without having to cancel them, resort to ballot stuffing, widespread Election Day violence or anything like that.
The Trump regime's efforts to undermine free, fair and democratic elections will likely fall into two categories. First, the regime will put obstacles in front of Democratic voters seeking to cast their ballots. This kind of voter suppression is hardly new in the United States but we can expect more of it. This can include things like harassing election officials to push people off the voter rolls, creating even more obstacles for people to vote to register to vote and, during the voting period itself, using various forms of intimidation to keep people away from the polls.
A corollary to this first category is that authoritarian regimes all over the world manipulate elections by changing the rules each election cycle. This includes things like switching from at large to district based elections for parliament to help an incumbent ruling party, setting the threshold higher or lower in a party list system, demanding different kinds of identification for voters, making it more difficult for out of country voters to vote and the like. This is also the kind of thing we can expect, and are already seeing, from the Trump administration.
A recent example of changing the rules to help the Republican Party is that Texas, apparently with the encouragement of the Trump regime, is redrawing its congressional districts in the middle of a decade. Unless there is a demand from a court case, districts are redrawn at the beginning, not the middle, of each decade.
Redistricting in Texas will have little direct impact on the presidential election but could have a substantial effect on the midterm election, particularly given the very small margin the Republicans currently have in the House of Representatives. Currently, in the solidly but not overwhelmingly Republican state of Texas, the GOP holds 25 of the 38 congressional seats. It is not at all difficult to imagine that if they redraw those districts the GOP could probably increase that margin to 30 out of 38.
The second category consists of weakening faith in the elections and in election processes. This has been a core part of Republican messaging since 2020. At that time, despite losing a free fair and democratic election by a not very close margin, Trump managed to persuade many in the Republican Party that the election was stolen. Since then, believing that election was stolen, even though it was not, is the price of entry into Republican politics.
The Republican Party will cultivate more of that doubt as 2026 and 2028 get closer. This will be the Republican insurance policy. If they cannot manage to win or steal the election, they will mobilize their base to protest the results in a way that will be much bigger than January 6th.
Minnesota and Pennsylvania are examples of states where the Trump regime is engaged in the precise kind of election manipulation that will make it easier for them both to prevent free and fair elections and to perpetuate the narrative that a Republican defeat can only be due to cheating by Democratic election officials.
In both these states, the Trump Justice Department is demanding access to the voter rolls. The DOJ is claiming they want to check that the states are in compliance with the Help America Vote Act (HAVA). The DOJ actions have little to do with HAVA but may well lead to voters who have violated no law being purged from the voter lists or being asked to reregister and prove citizenship.
Many may not have the relevant documents easily available (how quickly can you find your birth certificate?) or may fear, reasonably so given the last six months, arrest or deportation despite being citizens. Meanwhile, the Trump regime and MAGA world will use the fact of these investigations to feed the false narrative of Democratic election fraud and just lay more of the groundwork for massive protest and Stop the Steal, Part II after the 2028 election.
One not very profound paradox of the Trump administration is that their constant, and unfounded, complaints about election fraud have occurred on a parallel track with their own efforts, primarily through voter suppression, to make elections less free and fair. In the coming months and years they will likely build on that voter suppression and pivot toward voter intimidation and more harassment of election officials making more difficult for Democrats to win. Similarly, Trump and his followers have successfully undermined faith in the American electoral system among Republicans making it easier to mobilize them to protest future Republican defeats.
We are seeing all the signs that Trump and the Republican Party are engaging in substantial efforts to ensure that free, fair and democratic elections, followed by an orderly transition of power do not occur. If we wait until mid-November of 2028 to fully prepare for this, it will be way too late.