After 2028
Even if everything goes well for supporters of democracy in 2028, the MAGA threat will remain.
As the 2026 midterm election approaches and the 2028 presidential election is no longer too far off in the distance, the familiar rhythms of election punditry are beginning to emerge. Questions about who the Democratic Party will, or should, nominate and the best strategy for winning in 2028 are being raised with more frequency. On the Democratic side, the potential candidates are doing their parts as well. California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is probably the front-runner for his party’s nomination seems more like a presidential candidate every day, even traveling to Europe this week to strengthen his foreign policy bona fides.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump continues to periodically, and unsurprisingly, indicate he may run again despite the clear Constitutional prohibition against him seeking a third term. Some, like me, believe he will run. Others cannot imagine such a clear violation of the Constitution, despite how much we have seen of precisely that in recent months, and are speculating whether Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio or somebody else will be the Republican standard bearer in 2028.
Looming over all this is the growing recognition that the 2028 presidential election is unlikely to be conducted in a free, fair and democratic manner and that there is no guarantee that the Trump administration will leave office if a Democrat is elected in 2028. The question of which of a group of substantially interchangeable Democrats is the nominee in 2028 is much less important that figuring out what we can do to ensure fair elections and a peaceful transition, but the former question is more fun and convenient than the latter, so it tends to draw more attention.
Speculation around who the parties will nominate and other horserace related questions scratch a Proustian political itch for many, but they not only obscure the gravity of the current political crisis, but implicitly promote a pollyannish vision of how to solve that crisis. One way to see this is to imagine what, for many, is a best case scenario. That scenario begins with whomever your ideal Democratic candidate is, and for this discussion it does not matter who, winning say 300 electoral votes and a majority of the popular vote in a free and fair election. Then, following a few weeks of angry posts on Truth Social, an elderly Trump shuffles of to Mar-a-Lago. So far, so good, right?
Clearly that outcome, however unlikely, would be a nice start, but even if that happy scenario comes to pass, the crisis will not be resolved. One way to see this is to think about what would happen to the Republican Party following this defeat. Some might want to believe that the GOP would see that MAGA fascism is not a winning strategy and would turn towards the Republican Party of the Reagan through George W. Bush era. That party pursued some extremely damaging policies but never fully embraced fascism or sought to destroy democracy in a way comparable to Trump’s Republican Party. However, this scenario seems unlikely.
The MAGA grip on the Republican Party is so strong that, while there are competing factions within the MAGA movement, there is no powerful force within the Republican Party that is not MAGA. The anti-Trump Republican was an endangered species five years ago, is all but extinct today and is not coming back.
Throughout a hypothetical Democratic presidency beginning in 2029, the post-Trump, but still MAGA, Republican Party would be planning for midterm elections and for 2032 when Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr. or some other MAGA figure, but not a modern version of Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan, would lead the party-and have a real shot at getting elected president.
Even if a Democrat wins in 2028, the American people and the world will believe, probably rightly, that we are only a spike in inflation away from a return of MAGA fascism. In other words, a couple of good elections in 2026 and 2028 will not be enough to defeat the MAGA movement. However, it should equally apparent that if a Democrat wins the White House in 2028, it will be imperative to accelerate prosecutions and return to the rule of law. Being intimidated out of doing this or believing that the passage of time alone will help us get past the Trump era would be to repeat the mistakes that President Biden made.
There is ample reason to think we will not get to this scenario. Assuming that we will have free and fair elections and that Trump, or his proxies, will accept defeat is a mistake that, at this point, borders on complicity. Moving forward as if it is still 1988 or 2008 and falling back into the comfortable cycle of punditry, elections and transitions is seductive, but is inexcusable.
Nonetheless, even if my pessimism around election fairness is overblown, the prospects for reconsolidating democracy through the normal American processes are dim. It remains true that if we want to (re)build American we must start by recognizing the sui generis nature of the crisis and allow ourselves to think boldly and innovatively about how to solve it.