Let's At Least Think This Through First
Before we push Joe Biden out of the race, we should recognize that what happens next might not go so well.
Since President Biden’s ghastly debate performance on Wednesday night, the calls for him to drop out of the race have grown louder. I have always believed Biden would run for a second term, but I have been wrong in the past and am okay with being wrong now if it helps stop Trump. To be clear, my priority, and if you are reading my work you probably share this view, is defeating Trump. I would happily vote for any Democratic candidate against Trump, whether it is Biden, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer or anybody else.
It is also important to ground any discussion about Biden leaving the race in some understanding of how the process will work and what some of the risks are. The risk of Biden staying in the race is apparent. If what we saw at the debate is what he will be between now and the election, then he is a very weak candidate. Biden, who has built his brand as being the only guy who ever beat Trump, may be morphing into the only major Democratic candidate that can lose to him.
Nonetheless, Biden leaving the race brings its own risks. One of those risks revolves around the Vice-President, Kamala Harris. It a consensus view shared by almost all Republicans and Democrats who want to seem clever that Harris is both unelectable and not qualified to be President.
The problem with that view is that it is axiomatically false. Harris does not poll worse than Biden against Trump, meaning it would be a very close race if she were the nominee. Moreover, a very smart African American woman who has won huge majorities from people of all backgrounds in the past, who proved to be very strong and effective in the Senate, has a background as a prosecutor and is the sitting vice-president is not just extremely qualified to be President, but is, in many respects, the ideal Democratic nominee. No amount of hand-wringing on the right and insider gossiping among Democrats is going to change that.
There is another reality around Harris that should be considered. The major demographic question in this race is whether Trump can maintain his, for a Republican, strong support among African Americans. If Trump gets 20% or more of the African American vote, he will win. If the Democrat brings that number down to 10%-15% or so, Trump probably loses.
Given that bringing African Americans home to the Democratic Party is absolutely essential for a Democratic victory, passing over the African American vice-president is not the best way to begin that process. Calling for Biden to drop out of the race because he is simply too old is a reasonable position, but thinking that it will be easy or wise to push the vice-president aside moves to the realm of political fantasy. Armchair liberals may be excited about a Whitmer-Buttigieg or some such ticket, but that is unlikely to do the same for working class African Americans.
It should also be remembered that a major reason why Kamala Harris is unpopular is because Joe Biden needed her to be. A well-liked Kamala Harris would have meant the pressure for Biden to not seek reelection would have begun at least a year ago and been much stronger. From the beginning of his term, Biden did not do the regular lunches with his vice-president, give Harris good assignments or indicate to the media that Harris was an important advisor. It is obviously true that Harris has flubbed opportunities and media appearances, but so have a lot of politicians.
Many believe that Biden must run because Harris is unpopular, but that reverses the causality. It is much more accurate to say that Harris is unpopular because Biden (believed he) had to run.
The other question about Biden leaving the race is what the ticket would look like if-and this is extremely unlikely-neither he nor Harris were on it. This is where Democrats can have fun thinking about their ideal ticket. Whitmer-Warnock, Newsom-Booker, Shapiro-Buttigieg: you get the point. Those exercises may make for good chatter. All of those people might be formidable candidates, but they also bring their own risk.
Ask yourself how many undecided voters in swing states want to vote for a rich white guy from California with a super-villain haircut, a #metoo problem from years ago ,who has not won a competitive election since 2003-and that was against a challenger from the left-and has never had to run against a strong Republican candidate. What about a midwestern governor who embraced draconian Covid measures and has never been a national figure or a governor who has only been in that office for two years.
Newsom, Whitmer and Shapiro, the candidates described above all have their strengths, but they also have flaws that would be exposed during the campaign.
On balance, it might be wiser to take the chance on a different candidate, given what we saw from Biden last week, but there is one more thing about the convention we should consider. If Biden were to step down the big majority of the delegates to the convention would still be his. Biden could release them to choose another candidate, but not all the delegates are Biden delegates. Roughly 5%-10% were elected on the uncommitted slate in various states.
The uncommitted vote was put together by activists for a ceasefire and in opposition to Biden’s support for Israel. In an open convention, they would likely find a candidate, perhaps one broadly unacceptable to most of America, who was also opposed to any more support for Israel. That candidate would not win, but would become a big part of the story of the convention.
Regardless of what you think of the war, Israel or Gaza, a floor fight where even five percent of the delegates were loudly attacking the administration’s foreign policy would not be helpful. Banners calling for globalizing the intifada, proclaiming “from the river to the sea,” chants about genocide or some of the even uglier sentiments about Israel and Jews that have been part of the Free Palestine movement over the last nine months are exactly what Trump and the Republicans would love to see at the Democratic convention. Biden stepping down, as essential as that might seem now, opens the door to that.
I don't know if Biden should or will drop out of the race-and if what we saw during the debate is what we will get the rest of the campaign, then he must drop out. However, we must think through where a Biden departure from the race could lead.
If on Labor Day, the Republican Party is running ads featuring video of keffiyeh clad delegates repeating Hamas talking points at the Democratic Convention, while revealing previously unknown dirt about the new Democratic standard-bearer, as millions of African American women are rightfully upset that after their loyal support for the Democratic Party, some white dude is the nominee instead of Kamala Harris, we may just wish we had doddering old Grandpa Joe back.
At least the SCOTUS, with its "Immunity" holding, has made it more difficult for Pres. Trump to prosecute former Pres. Biden :(
Well said. Biden didn't go this far in marginalizing Harris, but his neglect of his duty, in my view anyway, to make a public demonstration of his confidence in the person who would succeed him if he died in office can be compared with JFK's similar neglect of his duty vis a vis LBJ. Also, Harris, with proper preparation and a good speech coach, perhaps, could make a strong appeal to those men and women willing to continue the fight for a Living Constitution.